Altcoin season explained: How capital flows through crypto markets

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By Michael

The vast and dynamic realm of digital assets beyond Bitcoin, collectively known as altcoins, represents a critical segment of the cryptocurrency market. These alternative coins, encompassing both cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana, and various tokens, often exhibit distinct market behaviors and volatility profiles compared to the sector’s foundational asset. Understanding their diverse classifications and the cyclical flow of capital within this ecosystem is essential for navigating the broader financial landscape of digital currencies.

Altcoins, an abbreviation for “alternative coins,” broadly refers to all digital assets other than Bitcoin. This category includes major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL), alongside numerous other tokens designed for specific applications, like lending protocols or decentralized exchanges. While there is no universally accepted classification standard due to the market’s rapid evolution and the sheer volume of assets—CoinGecko alone lists over 400 categories—altcoins are typically distinguished from Bitcoin by their market positioning. Bitcoin often functions as a “base asset” or “digital gold” due to its relatively higher market capitalization and perceived stability, whereas altcoins are generally more susceptible to speculative interest, market trends, and sentiment-driven volatility.

This fundamental distinction underpins the theory of capital rotation within the cryptocurrency market, often conceptualized as a multi-phase cycle:

  • Bitcoin Phase: The cycle typically commences with capital and attention concentrated in Bitcoin, leading to its price appreciation and increased market dominance.
  • Ethereum Phase: As Bitcoin’s growth stabilizes and volatility diminishes, investors often shift focus to Ethereum. This period is characterized by heightened interest in the Ethereum ecosystem, driving its price performance.
  • Large Altcoins Phase: Following an Ethereum rally, liquidity tends to flow into high-capitalization altcoins, such as BNB or SOL, indicating a broader diversification of investment into established alternative networks and projects.
  • Mid and Small Altcoins Phase: In this final stage, capital cascades into smaller, often more speculative tokens, including experimental projects and even memecoins. This phase is known for its most rapid and dramatic price movements.

While an “altseason” technically begins as early as the second phase, market participants commonly associate it with the fourth stage. This is when a significant number of altcoins—particularly those with smaller market caps—outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum, fostering a widespread perception of pervasive market growth. This period is often accompanied by a surge in retail investor interest, heightened media coverage, the launch of new projects, and a substantial increase in liquidity and market capitalization for previously lesser-known tokens.

However, the traditional model of these crypto market cycles and the phased capital rotation is not without its critics. Some prominent analysts, including Arthur Hayes, argue that the historical four-year cycles may no longer hold true, while institutions like Bernstein have suggested the possibility of a prolonged bull market. This evolving dynamic is further influenced by factors such as the increasing dominance of institutional investment and the broader macroeconomic environment. Consequently, a consensus on the future trajectory of these cycles remains elusive within the crypto community, highlighting the market’s ongoing maturation and complexity.

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