Influential cryptocurrency entrepreneur Arthur Hayes has issued a pronounced warning regarding the potential for significant declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He cites a convergence of macroeconomic headwinds that he believes signal an unfavorable environment for risk assets, challenging the dominant narrative of market resilience and suggesting that the current economic landscape could trigger substantial corrections in the crypto market.
- Arthur Hayes projects Bitcoin could fall to $100,000 and Ethereum to $3,000.
- His concerns stem from a sluggish global credit market, intensified U.S. tariffs, and weaker-than-anticipated U.S. employment growth, specifically highlighting the July 2025 non-farm payrolls report showing only 73,000 new jobs.
- Hayes strategically de-risked his personal portfolio by liquidating over $13 million in Ethereum, Ethena, and PEPE.
- His current wallet holdings, as per Arkham Intelligence, total $28.3 million, with $22.95 million allocated to USDC stablecoins, reflecting a calculated pivot towards liquidity.
Hayes’s Cautionary Outlook and Macroeconomic Rationale
The co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, posits that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions are setting the stage for a notable downturn in major cryptocurrencies. His projections specifically target Bitcoin declining to $100,000 and Ethereum to $3,000.
Hayes’s analysis is primarily driven by what he describes as a “sluggish” global credit market, escalating U.S. tariff actions, and, critically, disappointing U.S. employment figures. He pointed to the July 2025 non-farm payrolls report, which registered the creation of only 73,000 jobs, as a key indicator underpinning his cautious stance.
In anticipation of these macroeconomic headwinds, Hayes reportedly took decisive action to de-risk his personal portfolio. This involved liquidating more than $13 million across various digital assets, including Ethereum, Ethena, and PEPE. Data from Arkham Intelligence reveals that his wallet currently holds $28.3 million in assets, with a significant majority—$22.95 million—held in USDC stablecoins, underscoring a strategic shift towards enhanced liquidity.
Hayes argues that the tempered credit expansion across major economies is constraining nominal GDP growth, thereby increasing pressure on inherently volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has already registered a 7.7% decline from its July 14 historical high of $123,000, while Ethereum experienced a 12.5% reduction after recently surpassing $3,900. Should Bitcoin reach Hayes’s projected $100,000 mark from its current levels, it would imply a nearly 19% correction.
Divergent Perspectives and Market Resilience
However, not all market observers concur with Hayes’s bearish sentiment. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, suggests that the market has exhibited enhanced stability since BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2023. He highlights a significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value accompanied by markedly diminished volatility and fewer precipitous drawdowns, indicating a maturing market.
This perspective is echoed by Mitchell Askew of Blockware Solutions, who posits that the era of extreme parabolic appreciation and sharp corrections for the leading cryptocurrency might be nearing its conclusion, giving way to more measured growth.
Further supporting a divergent view, analysts at CryptoQuant have reported a consistent trend of active Bitcoin accumulation by significant institutional investors, commonly termed ‘whales.’ This behavior contrasts sharply with the market dynamics observed prior to the 2021 market peak, which was preceded by a decline in Bitcoin holdings among these major players. Such accumulation suggests robust underlying demand and a potentially different market trajectory despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Chris brings over six years of hands-on experience in cryptocurrency, bitcoin, business, and finance journalism. He’s known for clear, accurate reporting and insightful analysis that helps readers stay informed in fast-moving markets. When he’s off the clock, Chris enjoys researching emerging blockchain projects and mentoring new writers.